In March, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s two international rating agencies to maintain China’s sovereign credit rating unchanged, but will adjust the credit rating outlook from “stable” to “negative”, caused concern at home and abroad. Long-term sovereign credit rating to deal with the debt situation and growth prospects of an economy objective evaluation and judgment, but the two companies to adjust our sovereign credit rating outlook was not objective and fair. Moody’s here with an example for analysis.
Moody’s made the adjustment to our credit rating outlook The first reason is the government debt lead to weaker financial situation. From the international comparison, it is entirely untenable. 2015 China government debt accounted for about 40% of GDP, far below the United States about 75%, Japan and the euro area more than 200% to 90% level. The survey shows that, according to whether or narrow caliber wide caliber calculated, the net assets of the sovereign are positive, which indicates that our government has enough assets to cover sovereign sovereign debt. In addition, Moody’s simply that rising debt levels of government, did not see this with the ongoing supply-side structural reforms closely. Moderate expansion of the scale of the deficit, aimed at reducing the burden on enterprises, stimulate the vitality of enterprises, while ensuring the education, science and technology, social security, employment, poverty alleviation and other public services and people’s livelihood expenses. Our deficit ratio and government debt rates in a safe and reasonable range, full strength and conditions intensify efforts to implement the proactive fiscal policy.
Moody’s made the adjustment to our credit rating outlook The second reason is the decline in foreign exchange reserves have a negative impact. From the trends and reasons for changes in foreign exchange reserves of view, that judgment is clearly one-sided. From the trend, China’s foreign exchange reserves from June 2014 began to decline, but with the RMB against the US dollar to rise gradually stabilized, foreign exchange reserves decline narrowed, in March 2016 the balance of foreign exchange reserves increased $ 10.258 billion the previous month. The reasons for the changes, the decline in foreign exchange reserves and the devaluation triggered capital outflows have a certain relationship, but more important reason is that Chinese enterprises reasonable asset reallocation and foreign exchange reserves to support enterprises to go in the other aspects of the use of funds. Since 2014, China’s enterprises to actively carry out foreign investment and mergers and acquisitions. 2015 China Enterprises Overseas M & A projects reached 593, the total transaction amount $ 40.1 billion. In the first quarter of this year, the actual amount of the transaction of enterprises’ overseas M & A $ 16.56 billion. These data suggest that the decline in foreign exchange reserves not represent a large-scale withdrawal of international capital, but Chinese companies are making strides towards the international market, China is to build a high level of open economy performance.